Small Decisions Big Time

We all make mistakes, an investor from the USA said to me the other day. However, he wants to avoid making big mistakes. For example, not participating in a big bull market because he is not invested. Being on the right side of a big move is important to him. 

Big mistakes usually happen because of big decisions. Goosebumps appear in Hollywood movies when the main protagonist in a poker game pushes the entire mountain of money away into the middle of the table and says, "All in!" Then the drama usually takes its course. We investors never want to be in the position of putting our entire fortune at risk with a single action. 

Putting investing next to gambling causes frowning here and there. But success in poker, among other factors, also depends on the correct assessment of probabilities. When in doubt, throw your cards away in the game and say, “I'm out!” 

However, you should never be completely out of the financial markets. The current year shows once again that no one can predict when bond and stock prices will make big moves. At the turn of the year, pessimism was high and expectations of capital gains were low. The perfect ground for a positive development. 

With small steps to success

This year, we are particularly well positioned in Gutmann Portfolio Management. On the one hand, we are participating in the positive development of equities and, on the other, we are avoiding major risks in a few, highly weighted positions. The fact that we are so well positioned is the result of many small decisions and adjustments in Gutmann Portfolio Management over the past 18 months. It was not a sudden and violent tugging of the rudder. It was small changes that led to  a big impact. 

We will continue to do everything we can to avoid major mistakes. Thank you for your trust in Gutmann - we have our finger on the pulse of the markets for you.