Rustling in the Bush

A strange sound, close by. “What might come out of there?” - that’s probably what some early hominid thought millions of years ago. And made the crucial mistake: he stopped to look. You know what we’re not? Descendants of that poor soul. Because what came next was the end of his evolutionary line.

We are not descended from the curious. We come from the ones who ran. At the very first rustle. Hesitate - and the lion gets you.

What to do when markets fall?

This reaction runs deep. Under stress, we flee - physically or mentally. And falling stock prices trigger stress. Understandably so. We’ve worked hard for what we have. Watching it shrink within days feels like a personal attack.

Rationally, we know better. Setbacks are part of the game. Bear markets, crashes - they come with the territory. Look back, and the pattern becomes clear. Every honest conversation about investment strategy acknowledges this: a chosen equity allocation also means enduring some turbulence.

And yet, when the moment comes, it always feels different than we imagined.

Stay invested.

The key is to stay invested. Those who exit in turbulent times risk missing out on long-term opportunities. That may sound sober - but it’s vital. I know, it’s hard. Especially when markets keep falling and the idea of selling everything suddenly makes so much sense.

But here’s something I’ve noticed: I’ve never had someone proudly tell me afterwards how they sold at the bottom and bought back in even lower. In fact, many never bought back in at all. After the 2008/2009 financial crisis, some investors stayed out of the market for years - and missed the best part of the recovery.

Did you know that almost half of the best stock market days happen during bear markets?

Anyone acting impulsively during those periods risks missing out on exactly those +10% days. And you can’t plan for them. That’s why investing isn’t a short-term reaction - it’s a long-term decision.

Endure the setbacks.

Every strategy discussion and portfolio decision at Gutmann factors in these setbacks. And now they’re here. It’s moments like this that prove the value of a resilient investment structure. Those who try to avoid short-term pain often end up hurting their long-term prospects.

Or, to quote Winston Churchill:

“If you are going through hell - keep walking.”

We’ll continue to stay the course for you - and in the meantime, wish you a peaceful Easter holiday.

The Gutmann Viewpoint is hoping for friendly bunnies rather than growling lions - and will be back on April 25th.