The Illusion of the Perfect Solution

“I feel sick,” says my seven-year-old. And just like that, the workweek begins in limbo. The morning had just been on track, always a bit tight timewise, but still with a clear direction. Suddenly, multiple options appear: Work from home? Call relatives? The last one’s off the table for us - one less alternative.

Crisis situations ramp up complexity in an instant. Now it’s about finding the right solution. Or better yet, the perfect one. So we weigh our options, assign probabilities, consider every scenario, and still don’t reach a decision.

Then finally: surrender. The realization that we’re heading down the wrong path. Because the future remains uncertain. Maybe it’s just morning nausea. Maybe it’s the start of a stomach bug and we’re in for days of home quarantine. Time to cross fingers, knock on wood, or do whatever it is we modern folks do to appease fate.

The “Point of Action” – a principle for life

A remark by Warren Buffett at the last shareholder meeting keeps echoing in my mind:

“You never reach a final answer in this business — you reach a point of action that you take.”

As an investor, you don’t have the luxury of waiting until all the facts are in. They never will be. The goal is to act with enough information, not perfect information. That means it’s always a step into the unknown. Every experienced investor knows: the future is uncertain - and still makes decisions about their portfolio.

In many areas of life, we cling to the illusion that clarity will arrive at the very moment of decision. My takeaway from Buffett’s words: there are no final answers, only decision points.

Endless overthinking drains too much energy. It’s better to decide and correct mistakes along the way. Or even reverse decisions. In investing, I’m a fan of many small steps. None of them determines make or break. But over time, they lead to tangible change - hopefully in the direction we were aiming for.

Oh, and by the way, it turned out to be just a case of morning nausea. After a brief pause, everything was back on track. What remains? You guessed it - a Gutmann Viewpoint :-)