Let the Market (Still) Do the Talking

In June 2020, I published my first Gutmann Viewpoint with the title: Let the Market Do the Talking. Looking back, I might have just called it: The market does what it wants. 

Because let’s face it: I could write about this every week. Granted, that would get boring – but sometimes the topic just insists on making a comeback. 

From February to April, equity markets dropped sharply. By the end of the decline, nerves were fraying. Some saw it as the beginning of a new era: a shift in global tides, the end of U.S. dominance in financial markets, the breakdown of free trade – even the collapse of the free world as we know it.

These concerns weren’t just made up. They had weight – fueled by a tense geopolitical backdrop. Panic never comes from nowhere. And yet, for every scenario, there are arguments pointing in all directions. The key lies in what we choose to see – and how we interpret it. By early April, the mood was pitch black. But let’s be honest: who can accurately predict the impact of macro events on thousands of business models? I’ll tell you who – no one.

First the market, then the headlines

In times like these, I turn to the market. This complex ecosystem of opinions often recognizes long-term shifts faster than the headlines do. Or, as I like to say: the market moves first – the news comes second. In hindsight, everything seems logical. But for us as investors, this kind of hindsight is of little help.

Right now, markets are recovering and many investors are breathing a sigh of relief. And yet, things could just as easily reverse tomorrow. What’s the takeaway? It’s not about knowing the future. It’s about positioning yourself today – in a way that still lets you sleep well tomorrow.

Which brings us to the real question for our clients: What equity allocation can I live with – even in a prolonged bear market?

Clear thinking in uncertain times

If you’re expecting Gutmann to jump in and out of the market with perfect timing – you’ll be disappointed. Because market timing is not a viable strategy.

The truth is: no one knows what lies ahead. But what we can do – together – is navigate uncertain times with a steady hand. No matter what the market does next, we believe clear goals, calm decision-making, and a long-term perspective are the best guides.