Of Weather Wizards and Market Sharks

Just a few hours ago it was 32 °C in Jesolo; now, on the South Motorway outside Vienna, torrential rain, hail, and 18 °C. The dashboard reads 7 p.m. Incredible: that severe-storm alert for Vienna at 7 p.m. had already popped up on my phone back in Italy this morning. A perfect bull’s-eye.

People love to use the weather’s unpredictability as a metaphor for the stock market. Over short horizons, though, the meteorologists still have a better batting average than the market pros. Yet no weather wizard can tell us what 24 December 2025 will bring, and no market shark can forecast where prices will sit at Christmas.

You might quip, “It’ll probably be cold at Christmas.” And I’d reply, “On 25 December the stock exchange is closed; people in the United States are too busy admiring the stockings Santa has just stuffed.”

Ease off the accelerator

I don’t want to over-stretch the weather–market parallel. What matters in both arenas is not to follow forecasts blindly, but to be well prepared and able to react when things change on a dime. In the motorway downpour I eased off the gas, crawling along at 30 km/h. Arriving safely matters far more than gaining a few minutes. Not everyone agreed, as the fast lane proved.

When share prices tumble, it is just as unwise to speed-buy, especially on credit. In a drawn-out bear market, careful navigation is the smarter path.

At Gutmann we do everything we can to avoid permanent capital loss. Price setbacks, by contrast, are not a mistake; they are a basic feature of the market. You can control them no more than you can control the weather.

What matters is to hold on and remain invested when the climb resumes. That is easiest for those who focus on quality, just as we do at Gutmann.