Gutmann’s market assessmentGutmann‘s market assessment relies on fundamental factors and an econometric time series model. The aim of this process is the assessment of the economic situation over the short, medium and long term and the resulting trends in the financial markets.
The fundamental factors are based mostly on traditional economic indicators. In addition to microeconomic factors (e.g. corporate earnings) and macroeconomic factors (such as inflation expectations) proprietary indicators are applied that are designed to assess economic trends at the level of the G7 countries. Results of surveys conducted among consumers and businesses are also taken into account as well as findings of outside, world-wide leading research partners (among them BCA, GaveKal, SED). On this basis, Bank Gutmann identifies medium and long-term economic trends for large economic regions and short-term market expectations for emerging markets.
The econometric time series model is used to assess short-term trends at major financial centres. This model is based on index time series for equities, fixed income and money markets. Historical ratios are used to identify short-term expectations for individual markets. This model was developed by Bank Gutmann jointly with Dr. Gerd Infanger, Professor at Stanford University, California, an expert in the field of stochastic optimisation models, and is used exclusively by Bank Gutmann
The influencing factors named above are analysed by the Gutmann portfolio management team on a continuous basis and published as the Gutmann market assessment. It is used to assign relative weights to asset classes (equities, bonds, alternative investments), regions, currencies, and maturities.